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Where am I now? Lawlink > NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research > Recorded Crime Statistics > Does crime increase over Christmas and New Year?
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Does crime increase over Christmas and New Year?
The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research is often asked whether crime increases over the Christmas and New Year period. In response to these enquiries, we have carried out an analysis of crime statistics for selected offences.
Figures 1 and 2 below show the average number of criminal incidents recorded by NSW Police occurring on each day from 18 December to 14 January. The averages were calculated by considering data from four consecutive years, 2002/03 to 2005/06. We have only considered incidents where an incident date was recorded by Police.1 Figure 1 shows the daily average number of personal crime incidents and Figure 2 shows the daily average number of property crime incidents.
As can be seen in Figure 1 there is an obvious spike in both types of assault on 1 January and an increase in sexual offences on 31 December and 1 January. Twice as many incidents of domestic violence related assault are recorded on New Year’s Day compared with other days during the four-week period. The number of recorded incidents of sexual offences around New Year is approximately double that of other days in the period. Of all personal offences, non-domestic violence related assault incidents showed the largest increase on New Year’s Day, with over two and a half times as many of these incidents occurring on January 1 compared with other days during the period examined. The spike in these offences is likely due to the higher levels of alcohol consumption and social interaction.
In contrast, most personal offences remain relatively stable around Christmas Day. The exception to this is domestic violence-related assault, which is slightly more prevalent on both Christmas Day and Boxing Day. There are between one-quarter and one-third more incidents of domestic violence related assault recorded on Christmas Day than the daily average over the period considered. Non-domestic violence related assault shows a peak in the week before Christmas (18 to 24 December), probably due to the large number of social activities and increased alcohol consumption around this time.
The number of recorded robbery incidents peaks on 1 January but the average number is only slightly higher than the average across the other days in the period.
The pattern for property offences is somewhat different. The incidence of break and enter-dwelling is generally steady over the period with the exception of a 51 per cent increase on New Years Eve. The occurrence of malicious damage to property fluctuates from mid-December to mid-January with peaks in the days leading up to Christmas and a large spike on New Years Eve (by 30%) and New Years Day (by 39%). Trends in motor vehicle theft tend to be slightly lower on Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Years day compared with the rest of the period, although these decreases are relatively slight.
Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (unpublished data)
Notes
1. Unlike most of the Bureau's Recorded Crime Statistics reports, the current trends were calculated using the date of the incident, rather than the date when the incident was reported to police. This is because, in some cases, incidents are reported long after they take place and the victim is unsure of the actual date on which the incident occurred. Incidents where there was any doubt about the date of occurrence were excluded from the current analysis.
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